18:38:44 - 10.03.2010

Home Real Estate The real estate marks anniversary from the beginning of the falling
The real estate marks anniversary from the beginning of the falling
The question of the prices in the real estate market is actual more than ever, many people the question interests: what will be further? As it is necessary that though somehow to predict the future, it is necessary to address to the past.

So, the crisis beginning – September 2008 or «black September» as it was christened by foreign mass-media, but is not present, it is better to begin a bit earlier – April, 2008. All has begun at this particular time though we suspected nothing. For the first time for many years, spring of 2008 revival in the real estate market has not come, then nobody has started to sound alarm. Though some analysts also have felt that has begun to smell fried, but them were units. Unfortunately, sometimes understand all of us we can only after time.

Toughening of conditions of hypothecary crediting became the reason of so sharp collapse of demand in comparison with previous year. Already to the beginning of May turning of hypothecary programs has begun: variety of the Ukrainian banks in general have stopped habitation crediting in grivna, and under dollar credits have lifted percent. For that time the part of transactions in the capital market of the real estate is considerable consisted with use of bank credits, as has resulted to decrease in quantity of sales.

Thus, falling has begun not in September as it is considered to be, and is faster in May of last year, it became simple in September already obviously. We can confirm it proceeding from an instability of prices on Kiev вторичку, cost of which square metre in May made 3652 dollars, and in June 3564 dollars. And первичку tried to keep as it is possible longer, and the price of square metre has really increased, though and not much more. However, the have above risen, the was more sick to fall, people have ceased to be put in not completed objects, as result in the end of June any more there was no money to complete objects so they and stand hitherto.

For today "square" cost in the secondary market makes $1511, that is for a year of the price have fallen more than twice, if more precisely, to 55 %. And here cost of square metre in the primary market to judge and it is at all heavy, transactions on недостроям did not consist already from the beginning of new year. Ahead the summer – even during the best times this is time did not differ good demand, now as it is possible to guess a situation has worsened. The peak of reduction of prices should be expected in September, 2009. Then till the end of 2010 price will keep at one level (plus-minus of steam of percent).

To the middle, and even till the end of 2010 the real estate will not rise in price. According to experts, revival will begin, when the trust of buyers to builders will revive. And it can revive, when at least 20-30 % of nowadays thrown objects will be completed. Under some forecasts, it will occur not earlier than 2011-2012. To do any long forecasts now it is heavy enough, but while that us surrounds all is a continuous instability.